[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Sep 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 26 09:30:47 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity on Sep 25 was low with only B- to minor 
C-class flares observed. Periods of Type III and Type VI radio 
noise observed throughout the day, with surging observed in regions 
2420 and 2422. There is potential for isolated C- to M-class 
flare activity next three days. A large solar filament in the 
Southeast quadrant has shown some movement at its northern extremity. 
Solar wind speed was mostly steady at around 450 km/s with the 
anticipated high speed coronal hole wind stream not yet observed. 
IMF Bz component was mostly neutral with a period of Southward 
bias to -4nT 08-13UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22123001
      Cocos Island         4   22122101
      Darwin               5   12123101
      Townsville           5   12123111
      Learmonth            7   22124002
      Alice Springs        4   12123001
      Norfolk Island       3   11122010
      Culgoora             6   12133011
      Gingin               5   22123002
      Camden               5   12133001
      Canberra             5   22133000
      Melbourne            6   22233001
      Launceston           7   23233001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    14   12155100
      Casey               17   34533122
      Mawson              23   34425135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           42   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3311 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
27 Sep    12    Unsettled
28 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: A high speed coronal hole wind stream anticipated on 
Sep 25 has not yet eventuated. The observed geomagnetic field 
was mostly Quiet at low to mid latitudes. Conditions at high 
latitudes were Unsettled with occasional Active intervals. Expect 
disturbed geomagnetic conditions day one, gradually declining 
days two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Some recovery observed at all latitudes from the degraded 
propagation conditions observed over the past week.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Sep    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      46
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep    55    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
27 Sep    55    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Sep    50    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed during 25 
September over the Australasian region due to low levels of ionising 
radiation. There was continuing recovery in all regions over 
the poor ionospheric support for HF of the previous week. Elevated 
geomagnetic activity is anticipated days one and two of the forecast 
period which will negatively impact HF propagation conditions, 
mainly in the Antarctic region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    76800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list