[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 15 issued 2334 UT on 23 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 24 09:34:57 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: A number of minor C-class flares were observed throughout
the UT day Sep 23, mostly originating in newly numbered region
2422 (S20E50). A weak SE-directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery
after 0230UT. A sequence of narrow E-directed CME's were observed
later throughout the UT day. These were mostly on or near the
ecliptic and may have minor geoeffective consequences. A fragmented
filament near S20E60 erupted around 18UT. Solar wind speed remains
elevated at around 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated
between +5/-8nT. There was a sustained mild Bz negative interval
09-11UT. Solar activity is expected to be low next three days
but with a chance of isolated C- to M- class events. Solar wind
parameters are expected to increase on day two with the onset
of a coronal hole wind stream from a sequence of N and S polar
coronal holes now E of central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22222331
Cocos Island 7 22222321
Darwin 8 22222322
Townsville 10 22232332
Learmonth 10 22232422
Alice Springs 7 12222322
Norfolk Island 5 12222220
Culgoora 8 12222331
Gingin 9 22232331
Camden 9 12322331
Canberra 9 12322331
Melbourne 10 12332331
Launceston 11 22332332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 19 12453441
Casey 17 35432322
Mawson 20 24443442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2242 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 12 Unsettled
26 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region, with briefly disturbed intervals 09-11UT.
Conditions at high latitudes were mostly Unsettled with occasional
Minor Storm periods. Expect similar conditions day one of the
forecast period. Elevated solar wind parameters due to a coronal
hole wind stream are expected to complement the already moderate
solar wind to produce disturbed geomagnetic conditions days two
and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Fair Fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Fair Fair Normal-fair
25 Sep Fair Fair Normal-poor
26 Sep Fair Fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected to continue
over the next few days due to low levels of ionising solar radiation
and occasional geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 21 September
and is current for 22-24 Sep. Moderately degraded HF conditions
were observed during 23 September over the Australasian region
due to low levels of ionising radiation. There was some recovery
local night time hours over the poor ionospheric support for
HF of the previous week. Solar 10.7cm flux is expected to rise
slightly over the next few days which should improve ionospheric
conditions generally. Elevated geomagnetic activity is anticipated
days two and three of the forecast period which will negatively
impact HF propagation conditions, mainly in the Antarctic region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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