[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 23 09:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed on 22 Sep. Regions
2415, now approaching the W solar limb, and 2420 (N10E64) retain
moderate magnetic complexity and have potential for further C-
to M-class flares. A large solar filament near S10E15 has shown
some movement. The anticipated weak solar wind shock from a CME
observed on Sep 20 did not eventuate on Sep 22. Solar wind speed
remains elevated but steady at 500-600 km/s. The IMF Bz component
showed moderate fluctuations of +/-5nT over the UT day with no
periods of sustained Southward bias. Expect low solar activity
for the next three days with a chance of isolated C- to M-class
flares. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 22/1810UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 33423212
Cocos Island 5 22311111
Darwin 8 33312112
Townsville 12 33423222
Learmonth 10 32313312
Alice Springs 9 33312212
Norfolk Island 9 32422111
Culgoora 11 23423222
Gingin 8 22313222
Camden 11 23423212
Canberra 10 22423212
Melbourne 12 23423322
Launceston 14 33423323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 14 22524212
Casey 17 44422242
Mawson 19 34543231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 64 (Active)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 94 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3322 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with an Unsettled period 07-08UT. At high latitudes
conditions were Unsettled with a brief Active to Minor Storm
interval 07-08UT. The anticipated weak solar wind shock from
a CME observed on Sep 20 did not eventuate on Sep 22. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions days one and two with isolated Unsettled
intervals. Enhanced solar wind speed due to a sequence of small
N and S hemisphere coronal holes may bring more Unsettled conditions
day three. A brief energetic ion enhancement observed in ACE
EPAM data may indicate some geomagnetic disturbance in the next
24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Fair Fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Fair Fair Poor
24 Sep Fair Fair Poor
25 Sep Fair Fair Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue over
the next few days due to low levels of ionising solar radiation
and occasional geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
No data after 12UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day and after local dawn.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Sep 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Sep 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 21 September
and is current for 22-24 Sep. Degraded HF conditions were observed
during 22 September over the Australasian region due to low levels
of ionising radiation and occasional elevated geomagnetic activity.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list