[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 17 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 16 September.
There were few C-class flares and most of these were from Region
2415.The largest was C7.8 occurring at 16/1920 UT from region
2415. No earth-directed CMEs were observed on the available SOHO
LASCO coronagrams images for the UT day. The 2-day outlook (17-18
Sep) is for low to moderate solar activity with C class flares
likely and isolated chance of M class flares due to the growing
region 2415. A large northern hemisphere, but waning coronal
hole has kept the solar wind speeds elevated during the last
24 hours. The solar wind ranged between approximately 450 to
520 km/s, and has exhibited a very slow declining trend. The
Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -/+5 nT and Bt was steady
between 4-6 nT. Expect solar winds to remain at these levels
for the next two days (17-18 Sep) as the effects of the coronal
hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Cocos Island 4 12112211
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 7 22312222
Alice Springs 6 22212212
Norfolk Island 5 12212121
Culgoora 6 22212212
Gingin 7 22212322
Camden 7 12222223
Canberra 5 12212212
Melbourne - --------
Launceston 7 12223222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 22323231
Casey 16 44323323
Mawson 26 34533435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 4433 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 9 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region were
mostly quiet, with isolated active periods. The observed variations
in the geomagnetic activity over the last 24 hours is due to
high solar wind speeds streaming from a large northern hemisphere
coronal hole. With the solar wind speed expected to remain strong
over the next two days, a favourable interplanetary magnetic
field orientation of prolonged southward Bz can lead to active
conditions. Conditions are expected to trend back to mostly quiet
levels after few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
18 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
19 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions are expected to
continue over the next few days primarily due to low levels of
ionising solar radiation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Sep 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
19 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 14 September
and is current for 15-17 Sep. Significantly degraded HF conditions
were observed during 15 September over the Australian region
due to very low levels of ionising radiation and recently elevated
geomagnetic activity levels. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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