[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 15 issued 2357 UT on 15 Sep 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 16 09:57:17 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 15 September. Activity 
is expected to be low for 16 September. A large northern hemisphere 
coronal hole has kept the solar wind speed elevated, ranging 
between approximately 450 to 550 km/s. The wind speed should 
remain elevated for the next few days, with further strengthening 
likely during 17 September due to an equatorial extension of 
this large coronal hole. No earth directed CMEs were observed 
during 15 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22244222
      Cocos Island         7   22223212
      Darwin               8   22233212
      Townsville          13   32244222
      Learmonth           13   22344222
      Alice Springs       10   32233222
      Norfolk Island      10   32233222
      Culgoora            12   22244222
      Gingin              13   22244223
      Camden              12   22244222
      Canberra            12   22244222
      Melbourne           12   22244222
      Launceston          15   32244323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    18   32354421
      Casey               17   34433323
      Mawson              33   54344346

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           29   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   2323 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep    12    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep    20    Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
                possible at high latitudes
18 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region were 
mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods. Mostly 
quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16 September with 
mildly increased activity expected for 17 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Fair-poor
17 Sep      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Fair-poor
18 Sep      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Fair-poor

COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions are expected to 
continue over the next few days primarily due to low levels of 
ionising solar radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Sep    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to degraded greater than 30%.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      46
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep    25    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Sep    25    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Sep    30    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 14 September 
and is current for 15-17 Sep. Significantly degraded HF conditions 
were observed during 15 September over the Australian region 
due to very low levels of ionising radiation and recently elevated 
geomagnetic activity levels. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list