[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 2 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 1 Sep, with no C-class flares. No earth directed CMEs were
observed on the SOHO LASCO coronagrams images for the UT day.
The 2-day outlook (2-3 Sep) is for very low solar activity with
small chance of C class flares. During the last 24 hours, the
solar wind fluctuated between 340 and 400 km/s. The current solar
wind speed is 340 km/s. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
-/+5 nT and Bt ranged from 4-7 nT in the past 24 hours. The solar
winds are expected to elevate at some time within the next 48
hrs due to the expected arrival of high speed streams emanating
from a small positive polarity equatorial coronal hole taking
a geoeffective position on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11122001
Cocos Island 2 11111002
Darwin 2 11111002
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 2 11111002
Alice Springs 3 01022002
Norfolk Island 2 11111011
Culgoora 3 11122001
Camden 3 11122001
Gingin 3 11112002
Canberra 1 01012000
Melbourne 3 11122001
Launceston 4 11123011
Hobart 3 11122001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 11123000
Casey 10 34322112
Mawson 17 33311216
Davis 10 23321114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 1 September
and is current for 1-2 Sep. The geomagnetic conditions were at
quiet levels during the last 24 hours (UT day 1 Sep). The two
day outlook is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly unsettled
and at times could reach to minor storms levels in the high latitude
regions. Minor storm levels on 2 and 3 Sep are forecasted due
to a small positive polarity equatorial coronal hole taking a
geoeffective position on solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
unusually depressed. The foF2 values over the Australian region
are generally 10%-40% below long term predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions are expected to trend back towards monthly
predicted values during the 4 week period approaching September
equinox.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Sep 35 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Sep 35 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 31 August
and is current for 1-3 Sep. Depressed ionospheric conditions
were observed across all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours
(UT day 1 Sep). Similar ionospheric conditions are expected over
the next 3 days with some chance of further degradation on 3-4
Sep. These below predicted monthly HF conditions are due to very
low levels of solar ionising radiation. The forecasted further
degradation on 3-4 Sep are due to the expected arrival of active
geomagnetic conditions on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 40500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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