[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 28 10:30:41 EST 2015 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    99/46              99/46              99/46

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 27 Nov UT. 
The 2-day outlook is for very low solar activity. A few weak 
C class flares are possible. GONG H alpha observations show a 
large prominence located off the south west limb of the visible 
solar disk. Coronal Hole 703 is crossing the central meridian 
in the Southern Hemisphere. The solar wind speed increased from 
about 250 km/s to about 340 km/s during 04-05 UT. This change 
marked a sector boundary crossing in the IMF. The IMF Bz component 
almost reached -10 nT during the four hour interval preceding 
the IMF reversal. The solar wind speed is presently fluctuating 
in the range 300-350 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF is about 
10 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating in the range 
-5 nT to +5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11222112
      Cocos Island         3   11121111
      Darwin               5   11222212
      Townsville           5   11222212
      Learmonth            4   11122211
      Alice Springs        6   22222212
      Norfolk Island       4   21221111
      Gingin               5   21221122
      Camden               5   12222112
      Canberra             4   11221111
      Melbourne            5   12221112
      Launceston           7   12322222
      Hobart               5   12222112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   11101111
      Casey               14   33522123
      Mawson              14   34332233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov     6    Quiet
29 Nov     6    Quiet
30 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet throughout the Australian 
region during 27 Nov UT. The sector boundary crossing arrived 
when Australia was on the dayside and so its effects were negligible 
in our longitude sector. However, the planetary magnetic index 
Kp reached 3 during 03-06 UT because of increased geomagnetic 
activity in the opposite hemisphere. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be quiet mostly, but with unsettled intervals during 
28 Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near to 
predicted monthly values in the Southern Hemisphere and mildly 
depressed in the Northern Hemisphere during 27 Nov UT. Similar 
conditions are expected today, 28 Nov. However, some regions 
will experience depressed conditions initially.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Nov    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov    60    Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov    65    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near predicted 
monthly values throughout the Australian region during 27 Nov 
UT. The conditions are expected to be similar today, 28 Nov. 
However, depressed conditions are expected at mid-latitude stations 
initially.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 259 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    17100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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