[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 27 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Very low

Flares: B class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 26 Nov UT. 
AR 2459 produced the largest flare of the day, a B9.0 event peaking 
at 21:41 UT. The 2-day outlook is for an occasional weak C class 
flare. GONG H alpha observations recorded a Disappearing Solar 
Filament (DSF) near AR 2457 during 20-21 UT. H alpha observations 
show a large prominence “floating” above the south west limb 
of the photosphere. Coronal Hole 703 is approaching the central 
meridian in the Southern Hemisphere. The solar wind speed is 
presently about 260 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF was about 
3–4 nT during 00–10 UT and then gradually increased to about 
8 nT during 11–23 UT. The Bz component was weakly positive during 
00–10 UT and then trended southward reaching –6 nT during 11–18 
UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11010021
      Cocos Island         1   11000010
      Darwin               1   11010011
      Townsville           2   11010021
      Learmonth            2   11010022
      Alice Springs        1   01110011
      Norfolk Island       2   12000011
      Gingin               1   00000021
      Camden               2   11011021
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Launceston           3   01111121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                6   13221121
      Mawson               4   11011132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov     6    Quiet
29 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 26 Nov UT. 
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 
48 hours.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced 
in the Southern Hemisphere and depressed in the Northern Hemisphere 
during 26 Nov UT. Similar conditions are expected today, 27 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Nov    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Nov    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced 
throughout the Australian region during 26 Nov UT. The preliminary 
daily T index was 129 at Cocos Island, 118 at Perth and 116 at 
Hobart. Other stations recorded T indices in the range 65-110. 
Conditions are expected to be enhanced today, 27 Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 265 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    14800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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