[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 30 09:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
As anticipated, the solar wind stream showed some strengthening 
due to the coronal hole effect. Solar windspeed showed a gradual 
increase from around 360 km/s to 450 km/s and Bz mostly stayed 
between +/-5 nT during this period. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days with some 
possibility of C-class activity. Solar wind stream is expected 
to remain around the current level today and then gradually decline 
on 31 May and stay at normal levels on 1 June as the coronal 
hole effect is expected to gradually decline over the next two 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11211212
      Darwin               4   11211112
      Townsville           5   11221222
      Learmonth            5   11221122
      Alice Springs        4   01211212
      Norfolk Island       4   12111112
      Culgoora             3   11111211
      Gingin               4   02211212
      Camden               3   11111211
      Canberra             1   00110111
      Launceston           4   11111221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000010
      Casey                7   23221212
      Mawson              10   22211125
      Davis               11   22321115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3212 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 May     6    Quiet
01 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today, against 
an expected rise to periods of active levels. The coronal hole 
effect has been weaker than anticipated. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to stay at quiet to unsettled levels on 30 May and 
then gradually decline to quiet levels on 31 May and stay at 
quiet levels on 1 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
31 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during 
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Mild 
to moderate MUF depressions may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 May    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      101
May      90
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
31 May    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
01 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ 
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Mild to moderate MUF depressions may be expected 
in this region for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    53100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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