[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 29 09:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from around 320 km/s
to 380 km/s and Bz mostly stayed between +/-5 nT during this
period. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next three days with some possibility of C-class activity.
Solar wind stream is expected to gain further strength on 29
and 30 May due to the effect of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Darwin 3 11112111
Townsville 5 22122111
Learmonth 4 22212101
Alice Springs 3 21122100
Norfolk Island 2 11111010
Culgoora 3 11112111
Gingin 3 21112101
Camden 3 11112101
Canberra 1 11011000
Launceston 4 12122111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 4 00024000
Casey 5 22212112
Mawson 9 44111111
Davis 6 22222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1101 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 12 Unsettled to Active
30 May 8 Unsettled
31 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Geomagnetic
conditions may rise to unsettled to active levels on 29 May and
then gradually decline to unsettled and then quiet levels over
the following two days thereafter. This is expected to happen
due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Mild
to moderate MUF depressions may be expected, especially on high
and some mid latitude locations, for the next two days. Conditions
are expected to return to mostly normal levels on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
30 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
31 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Mild to moderate MUF depressions may be expected
in this region for the next two days. Conditions are expected
to return to mostly normal levels on the third day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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