[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 22 09:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is low with a single C1 class flares
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00000001
Darwin 1 10100011
Townsville 1 01000102
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 00000000
Culgoora 0 00000001
Gingin 0 00100100
Camden 0 00000101
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00010100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 2 02211100
Mawson 8 11122134
Davis 4 01221221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3421 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 5 Quiet
23 May 5 Quiet
24 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted MUF values are expected
for the next 3 days with some minor depressed periods possible
and increasing due to falling levels of ionoising solar flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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