[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 May 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 21 09:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity is low with only minor C class flares 
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22212100
      Darwin               3   22211001
      Townsville           6   22312111
      Learmonth            3   22212000
      Alice Springs        3   22212000
      Norfolk Island       3   22102011
      Culgoora             4   22212110
      Gingin               3   22202100
      Camden               3   -2212100
      Canberra             3   22202000
      Launceston           4   22-22100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
      Macquarie Island     4   12223000
      Casey                5   32212110
      Mawson              14   34421142
      Davis               15   23323153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           25   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18   5422 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     5    Quiet
22 May     5    Quiet
23 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 May    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      101
May      90
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
22 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
23 May    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted MUF values are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 506 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   178000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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