[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 19 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 108/58 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity is very low. The solar wind speed has
risen slightly to around 450 km/s with an IMF Bt of just under
20 nT. The Bz component has been southward by more than 10nT
at times since 16UT on the 19th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22222023
Darwin 7 12222123
Townsville 8 22322123
Learmonth 9 22323023
Alice Springs 7 22222023
Norfolk Island 5 11222022
Culgoora 7 22222123
Gingin 7 12223023
Camden 7 22222023
Canberra 4 11112022
Launceston 9 22223133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 6 10124012
Casey 11 33422023
Mawson 22 22322256
Davis 13 23322125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2210 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 20 Active
20 May 15 Unsettled to Active
21 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Unsettled to Active conditions
are expected on the 19th, with possible isolated Minor Storm
periods. Conditions are expected to then become quieter over
the following 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions at high
latitudes are likely on 19 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted MUF values are expected
for the next 3 days, with mild depressions possible in southern
areas on the 19th and 20th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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