[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 15 issued 2333 UT on 02 May 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 3 09:33:38 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 108/58 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed ranged between 400km/s-450km/s over the
UT day. Bt, the total IMF value gradually declined over the UT
form 10nT to 7nT, Bz component fluctuating between +/-7nT. Very
Low to Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Cocos Island 4 12210022
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 5 22211122
Alice Springs 5 22211122
Norfolk Island 4 22110121
Culgoora 5 12211122
Gingin 6 23211122
Camden 5 12211122
Canberra 4 12210122
Launceston 6 23211122
Hobart 4 12201122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01000011
Casey 10 34321122
Mawson 11 33221134
Davis 14 2432----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1210 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 5 Quiet
04 May 5 Quiet
05 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly depressed HF conditions observed
at low latitudes during the past 24 hours. HF conditions are
expected to be mostly normal for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
AUS/NZ regions with occasional MUF depressions for Northern AUS
and Equatorial regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support
and near monthly predicted MUF values expected for the next 3
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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