[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 15 issued 2336 UT on 01 May 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 2 09:36:58 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with just
a single C-class event, a C2.3 at 0257UT from slowly growing
region 2335 (S15E63). The solar wind speed steadily increased
from <400km/s at 00UT to be ~450km/s at 23UT due to the influence
of a small positive polarity coronal hole. The Bz component of
IMF also increased slightly in magnitude ranging between +10nT
and -8nT over the UT day. Very Low to Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days. A weak shock was observed
in the solar wind at 1441UT on 01 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22100111
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 3 22100111
Townsville 4 22100212
Learmonth 3 22100111
Alice Springs 2 -2000111
Norfolk Island 2 22000111
Culgoora 3 22100111
Gingin 2 21100110
Camden 2 22000111
Canberra 2 12000101
Launceston 2 12000211
Hobart 2 12000101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 7 33320111
Mawson 5 23200112
Davis 6 23311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 49 (Unsettled)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 May 5 Quiet
04 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days with possible Unsettled
periods for 02May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly depressed HF conditions observed
over the last 24 hours across all latitudes. HF conditions are
expected to be mostly normal for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
AUS/NZ regions with occasional MUF depressions for Northern AUS
and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support
and near monthly predicted MUF values expected for the next 3
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 70900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list