[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 30 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 29 Jun. AR 2373
is located near the NE limb and produced the largest flare of
the day, a C2.4 event peaking at 18:07 UT. Solar flare activity
is expected to remain low during the next 48 hours. AR 2375 and
a spot group trailing AR 2373 have just rotated around the Eastern
limb. They may become the source of significant solar activity
later in the week. There are presently no Earthward directed
CMEs. The solar wind speed has been varying erratically in the
approximate range 360 km/s to 460 km/s. The magnitude of the
IMF is presently about 6 nT. Bz was predominately northward with
brief excursions to -5 nT during 29 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11221100
Cocos Island 2 12211000
Darwin 3 12221100
Townsville 4 12221110
Learmonth 4 22221100
Alice Springs 3 12221000
Norfolk Island 3 11221010
Culgoora 3 11221100
Gingin 2 11220000
Camden 3 11221100
Canberra 1 01210000
Melbourne 3 11221100
Launceston 4 11321100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 01322100
Casey 8 23322121
Mawson 9 23332112
Davis 9 23333111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3442 3242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 5 Quiet
01 Jul 6 Quiet
02 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 29 June and
they are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours. There
are presently no Earthward directed CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The geomagnetic storms of last week (22 to 25 Jun) produced
a major negative ionospheric storm, resulting in depressed conditions
for HF radio wave propagation. The conditions are trending gradually
back toward near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere.
They are also beginning to show signs of recovery in the Southern
Hemisphere. Conditions are expected to trend gradually back toward
near predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values.
01 Jul 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values.
02 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were generally
depressed throughout the Australian region during 29 Jun. The
conditions were more strongly depressed at low latitude stations
and starting to recover at mid-latitude locations. The conditions
are expected to be depressed again today, but trend gradually
back toward near predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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