[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 15 issued 2351 UT on 28 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 29 09:51:07 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours with
Region 2371 (N14W85) the source of a C1.1 flare at 0612UT. Solar
wind speed has gradually declined from being ~500km/s between
00UT-10UT to be ~400km/s at the time of this report. The IMF
Bz component has ranged between +/-4nT over most of the UT day
with a brief sustained southward excursion between 03UT-06UT
where it reached -7nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low to
Moderate for the next 24 hours as region 2371 rotates around
the west limb. Very Low to Low solar activity expected for
30Jun-01Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 23323121
Cocos Island 5 12222111
Darwin 6 13212122
Townsville 9 23323122
Learmonth 10 23323131
Alice Springs 8 23313121
Norfolk Island 5 13222020
Culgoora 9 23323121
Gingin 10 22323232
Camden 9 13323221
Canberra 4 12212120
Melbourne 9 23323221
Launceston 9 23323221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 12 13344210
Casey 11 33323132
Mawson 28 45533353
Davis 27 33443364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3222 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 26 June and
is current for 27-29 Jun. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0425UT 26/06, Ended
at 0525UT 27/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed during 28 June
with reduced maximum user frequencies for low to mid latitudes.
Disturbed HF conditions for some high latitude stations. Degraded
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours with
improving ionospheric support over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values.
01 Jul 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 28 June
and is current for 28-29 Jun. Depressed MUFs observed for all
Australian/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Similar to improving
ionospheric support is expected over the next 24 hours with
gradual ionospheric recovery and approaching near predicted monthly
values over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 562 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 636000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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