[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 9 10:30:36 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 08 December,
due to AR 2463 (S05E64) producing three C-class flares at 1724UT
(C1), 1914UT (C6.7) and 22:55UT (C4.5). No Earth-directed CME
was observed via LASCO imagery. Expect Low solar activity over
the next three days with a slight chance of M-class flares. ACE
spacecraft shows a steady solar wind speed decrease from 700
km/s to just under 500 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +4/-5nT over
the last 24 hours with no prolonged negative periods. Expect
the solar wind to approach 400 km/s over the UT day, 09 December,
however late on the UT day or early on 10 December expect the
solar to increase in speed again due to an equatorial coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 32223112
Cocos Island 4 21122110
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 8 32223122
Learmonth 9 32223113
Alice Springs 7 22223112
Norfolk Island 6 32222012
Gingin 8 31233112
Camden 9 32233122
Canberra 5 22222012
Hobart 10 33233112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 32134211
Casey 26 56433223
Mawson 33 55353226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 4433 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 25 Active
11 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 8-9 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian
region were Quiet to Unsettled during the UT day, 08 December.
Expect similar conditions today, 09 December, with a return to
Active conditions on 10 December and possible isolated periods
of Minor Storm levels at the higher latitudes such as Tasmania.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor depressed HF conditions are expected today, 09
December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
11 Dec 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 8-10 Dec. Degraded HF conditions were observed
during the UT day, 08 December, over the Australasian region
due to low levels of ionising radiation and elevated geomagnetic
activity. Isolated periods of blanketing sporadic-E conditions
continue to be observed in the southern Australian region. Expect
minor depressions today and tomorrow with possible degraded conditions
on 11 December due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 606 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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