[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 8 10:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 07 December,
due to AR 2465 (S05E64) producing a single C1 class flare at
04198UT. No Earth-directed CME was observed in available LASCO
imagery (note there are significant data gaps). Expect Very Low
to Low solar activity over the next three days. ACE spacecraft
shows a steady solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to approximately
650 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +11/-8nT over the last 24 hours
with no prolonged negative periods. Expect the solar wind to
remain elevated over the next 24 hours and current conditions
to prevail.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 33334332
Cocos Island 10 22333321
Darwin 11 23333222
Townsville 15 33334332
Learmonth 15 33334332
Alice Springs 12 23333322
Norfolk Island 14 33334232
Gingin 17 33334432
Camden 14 23334332
Canberra 13 23333224
Hobart 15 333341--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 19 22355331
Casey 27 45544333
Mawson 45 45444665
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 22 1425 5333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 20 Active
09 Dec 30 Active to Minor Storm
10 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were
Unsettled to Active during the UT day, 07 December, with cases
of isolated Minor/Major Storm periods in the Antarctic region.
Expect this trend to continue for the next two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue over
the next few days due to low levels of ionising solar radiation
and increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
09 Dec 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed during the UT day,
07 December, over the Australasian region due to low levels of
ionising radiation and elevated geomagnetic activity. Isolated
periods of blanketing sporadic-E conditions continue to be observed
in Australian region. Similar HF conditions are expected for
the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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