[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 6 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 5 Dec UT. AR 2463
(S12E52)produced a double peaked (1521UT and 1623UT)low level
C class flare. No Earth-directed CME was observed in available
LASCO imagery, although there are significant data gaps. Expect
mostly Low solar activity next three days. Solar wind speed gradually
increased during 05 Dec and is presently about 450 km/s. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-7nT with a prolonged southward excursion to -10nT ~ 06-08UT.
Solar wind speed is expected to elevate at some time within the
next few hours due to the anticipated arrival of high speed streams
emanating from a coronal hole. The 3-day outlook (06-08Dec) is
for enhanced solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 11232322
Cocos Island 6 11131222
Darwin 7 11131322
Townsville 10 22232422
Learmonth 9 11232332
Alice Springs 7 01232322
Norfolk Island 7 11232321
Gingin 11 21232432
Camden 11 12233422
Canberra 7 01232321
Hobart 12 12333422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 16 11444422
Casey 22 45443332
Mawson 19 33333335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0210 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 25 Quiet to Active. Possible Minor Storm periods.
07 Dec 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
08 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 4 December
and is current for 6-7 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
to Unsettled throughout the Australian region during 05 Dec UT.
Brief Active periods observed at higher latitudes ~ 15UT. Expect
Quiet to Unsettled conditions until the high speed solar wind
stream associated with the coronal hole impacts Earth later today,
06 Dec, then expect Active conditions with possible isolated
periods of Minor Storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
07 Dec Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
08 Dec Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 65
Jan 64
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Dec 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 05 Dec. Periods
of blanketing sporadic-E conditions observed at times in Southern
Australian region. Elevated geomagnetic activity forecasted for
next few days are expected to caused further MUF depressions
on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 68900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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