[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 5 10:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 4 Dec UT. AR 2462(N09E57) 
produced the largest flare of the day, a C4 event peaking at 
1710 UT. SOHO LASCO telescopes recorded a CME expanding toward 
the NE ~1748UT. This CME is not Earthward directed. Expect mostly 
Low solar activity next three days. Solar wind speed remained 
steady at around 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT and is currently weakly 
southward. Solar wind conditions are expected to be at nominal 
levels today, 05 Dec before picking up 06 Dec due to coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111002
      Cocos Island         1   12100000
      Darwin               2   11011002
      Townsville           3   12111102
      Learmonth            3   21111102
      Alice Springs        3   12111002
      Norfolk Island       0   01000001
      Gingin               3   22111101
      Camden               4   12111112
      Canberra             1   01010001
      Hobart               3   12111002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   11010001
      Casey               13   44332112
      Mawson               9   23223213

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1211 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec     7    Quiet
06 Dec    20    Quiet to Active
07 Dec    30    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet throughout the Australian 
region during 04 Dec UT and they are expected to remain mostly 
Quiet day one. Anticipated solar wind disturbance on days two 
and three of the forecast period is expected to result in Unsettled 
to Active geomagnetic. Possible storm periods at higher latitudes, 
especially if IMF Bz has an extended southward excursion.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
06 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Dec    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      65
Jan      64

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec    50    Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec    35    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 04 Dec. Periods 
of blanketing sporadic-E conditions observed at times in Southern 
Australian region. Depressed HF propagation conditions days two 
and three of the forecast period due anticipated increase in 
geomagnetic activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    99800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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