[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 3 10:30:27 EST 2015 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Dec             04 Dec             05 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low on 02 Dec. Active Region 
2458 (N11W60) produced a C2 level flare at 0446UT. No Earth-directed 
CME's were observed in available LASCO imagery, although there 
are significant data gaps. Solar wind speed was steady at around 
450 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was mostly southward to -5nT over the UT day. Mildly elevated 
solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decline to nominal 
levels by day three.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11213111
      Cocos Island         4   11213110
      Darwin               6   11223112
      Townsville           6   11223121
      Learmonth            7   21223222
      Alice Springs        6   11223112
      Norfolk Island       3   11211120
      Gingin               6   21213212
      Camden               7   12313221
      Canberra             3   11212110
      Hobart               8   123132--    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     8   22323310
      Casey               19   45433222
      Mawson              21   34324353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           33   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   2312 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 1 December 
and is current for 2-3 Dec. The regional geomagnetic field was 
Quiet with Unsettled periods observed at low to mid latitudes 
12-15UT. Unsettled conditions also observed at higher mid-latitude 
stations 06-09UT. Unsettled to occasionally Active conditions 
observed at high latitudes. Solar wind parameters remain mildly 
elevated due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream, which 
is in gradual decline. Expect mostly Quiet conditions by day 
three of the forecast period. There is a slight chance of mild 
geomagnetic disturbance day one of the forecast period resultant 
from the CME observed on Nov 29.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Dec    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 15% 06-09, 13-19UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      65
Jan      64

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
04 Dec    50    Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 02 Dec. Periods 
of blanketing sporadic-E conditions observed S Aus region. Occasional 
disturbance observed Antarctic region due to elevated geomagnetic 
activity. Periods of disturbance due to further geomagnetic activity 
possible day one and two of the forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 490 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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