[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 2 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 1 Dec UT. Very Low
to Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed stayed around 440 km/s until ~ 0800 then it increased
to 550km/s and is presently around 500 Km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT, mostly
southward between 0900-1200UT. The CME observed on 29-Nov will
probably give Earth a glancing blow today, day one of the forecast
period which can result in mild to moderate solar wind disturbance
persisting into day two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 22223322
Cocos Island 7 12123321
Darwin 9 22223322
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 15 22223533
Alice Springs 9 22223322
Norfolk Island 8 22232222
Gingin 17 31224533
Camden 11 23233322
Canberra 7 12123222
Hobart 10 22233322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 19 22155422
Casey 24 45543322
Mawson 26 43234455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 3444 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
03 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 1 December
and is current for 2-3 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
to Unsettled throughout the Australian region during 1 Dec UT.
A glancing blow from a halo CME launched during 29 Nov may cause
Active geomagnetic conditions during 02-03 Dec. Possible storm
periods at higher latitudes, especially if IMF Bz has an extended
southward excursion.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 65
Jan 64
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
03 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
04 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 30 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 2 Dec. Conditions for HF radio wave
propagation were mildly depressed throughout the Australian region
during 01 Dec UT. Minor degradations in HF conditions 2-3 Dec
due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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