[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 15 issued 2339 UT on 07 Aug 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 8 09:39:57 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity increased during 7 August primarily due 
to region 2396. Solar activity is expected to be mostly low during 
8 August with the reasonable chance of moderate activity. Solar 
wind speeds remained elevated during 7 August due to the lingering 
effects of a coronal hole wind stream. There were some sustained 
periods of mild southward IMF to around 10 nT. Solar wind speeds 
are presently around 500 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected 
to abate slowly over the next 24-48 hours. No earth directed 
CMEs were observed during 7 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22334311
      Cocos Island        10   11334310
      Darwin              12   12434311
      Townsville          17   22445311
      Learmonth           16   22435401
      Alice Springs       14   12435301
      Norfolk Island       9   22333211
      Culgoora            11   22334311
      Gingin              15   22335411
      Camden              15   12435311
      Canberra            11   13334300
      Launceston          18   22445411
      Hobart               9   211333--    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    22   11546300
      Casey               14   23335310
      Mawson              37   34555426
      Davis               18   22454411

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12   2124 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                active periods
09 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 5 August and 
is current for 7-8 Aug. Geomagnetic activity for the Australian 
region reached active levels during 7 August with some storm 
levels at high latitudes due to the lingering effects of a coronal 
hole wind stream. Activity is expected to be mostly quiet to 
unsettled with the chance of active levels for 8 August as the 
coronal hole effects subside.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to fair during 
7 August. Similar conditions are expected for 8 August. Mostly 
normal conditions are expected for 9-10 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
09 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
10 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs have been mainly near predicted monthly values 
with some mild depression at times during 7 August. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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