[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 15 issued 2339 UT on 07 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 8 09:39:57 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity increased during 7 August primarily due
to region 2396. Solar activity is expected to be mostly low during
8 August with the reasonable chance of moderate activity. Solar
wind speeds remained elevated during 7 August due to the lingering
effects of a coronal hole wind stream. There were some sustained
periods of mild southward IMF to around 10 nT. Solar wind speeds
are presently around 500 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected
to abate slowly over the next 24-48 hours. No earth directed
CMEs were observed during 7 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 22334311
Cocos Island 10 11334310
Darwin 12 12434311
Townsville 17 22445311
Learmonth 16 22435401
Alice Springs 14 12435301
Norfolk Island 9 22333211
Culgoora 11 22334311
Gingin 15 22335411
Camden 15 12435311
Canberra 11 13334300
Launceston 18 22445411
Hobart 9 211333--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 22 11546300
Casey 14 23335310
Mawson 37 34555426
Davis 18 22454411
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 2124 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of
active periods
09 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 5 August and
is current for 7-8 Aug. Geomagnetic activity for the Australian
region reached active levels during 7 August with some storm
levels at high latitudes due to the lingering effects of a coronal
hole wind stream. Activity is expected to be mostly quiet to
unsettled with the chance of active levels for 8 August as the
coronal hole effects subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to fair during
7 August. Similar conditions are expected for 8 August. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for 9-10 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
09 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
10 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mainly near predicted monthly values
with some mild depression at times during 7 August. Similar conditions
are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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