[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 15 issued 2346 UT on 13 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 14 09:46:59 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: NA
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN NA NA NA
COMMENT: There are presently 7 spot regions on the visible solar
disk, 4 of which are numbered. There is the potential for some
moderate flare activity from some of these regions. Solar wind
speeds have been relatively light but may increase slightly during
14 April in response to a coronal hole wind stream. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed during the 13 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22211211
Cocos Island 5 22311110
Darwin 4 22211201
Townsville 7 32311202
Learmonth 6 32211220
Alice Springs 5 22211211
Norfolk Island 4 22210201
Culgoora 4 22211201
Gingin 4 22201220
Camden 4 22211201
Canberra 4 22211201
Launceston 7 2-322212
Hobart 5 22221211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 11141211
Casey 8 33311211
Mawson 11 34322222
Davis - 24-22110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg NA
Planetary NA
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 12 Unsettled
15 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of a slight increase in activity during
14 April in response to the weak influence of a coronal hole
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 52800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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