[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 15 issued 2346 UT on 13 Apr 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 14 09:46:59 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: NA


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   NA            	NA                 NA
COMMENT: There are presently 7 spot regions on the visible solar 
disk, 4 of which are numbered. There is the potential for some 
moderate flare activity from some of these regions. Solar wind 
speeds have been relatively light but may increase slightly during 
14 April in response to a coronal hole wind stream. No earthward 
directed CMEs were observed during the 13 April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211211
      Cocos Island         5   22311110
      Darwin               4   22211201
      Townsville           7   32311202
      Learmonth            6   32211220
      Alice Springs        5   22211211
      Norfolk Island       4   22210201
      Culgoora             4   22211201
      Gingin               4   22201220
      Camden               4   22211201
      Canberra             4   22211201
      Launceston           7   2-322212
      Hobart               5   22221211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     6   11141211
      Casey                8   33311211
      Mawson              11   34322222
      Davis                -   24-22110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        NA
           Planetary             NA                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr    12    Unsettled
15 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few 
days with the chance of a slight increase in activity during 
14 April in response to the weak influence of a coronal hole 
wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Apr    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    52800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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