[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 15 issued 2343 UT on 12 Apr 2015

Mon Apr 13 09:43:26 EST 2015

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0958UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 134/88

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during April 12. AR 2321(N12E59), 
the most significant region on the disk (Ekc/Beta-Gamma) produced 
several C class X ray flares and an M1 flare peaking at 0950UT. 
AR 2320(S14W62) was less active but it still has a Beta-Gamma 
configuration, and produced two low level C-class flares. Other 
sunspot groups have formed, but so far they are relatively inactive. 
Conditions are expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 
days with the chance of an isolated X-class flare most likely 
from AR 2321. Available SOHO LASCO images show no clear evidence 
for Earthward directed CMEs. Solar wind speed was light ranging 
from 340km/s to 380Km/s with the IMF Bz component mainly northward 
over the last 24 hours. The solar wind parameters are expected 
to remain at nominal levels over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Cocos Island         1   11100010
      Darwin               2   11100112
      Townsville           3   11111112
      Learmonth            2   11100121
      Alice Springs        2   11100111
      Norfolk Island       1   11100011
      Culgoora             3   11111111
      Gingin               3   11100130
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             1   01100111
      Launceston           3   11201111
      Hobart               2   11101111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   01001100
      Casey                7   33310021
      Mawson              18   23310164
      Davis                9   23311033

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           30   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             21   4445 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr     5    Quiet
14 Apr     5    Quiet
15 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the UT day, 12 
April. Conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet 13-15 April.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible short-wave fadeouts.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Apr    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available .
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Data gaps from Cocos Island and Niue Island limit our 
ability to determine the ionosphere support for the Equatorial 
region. Some mild depressions were observed for Southern/Northern 
regions during 12 April otherwise conditions were mostly normal. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
with slight depressions at times for the next 24 hours. There 
is the chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    39900 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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