[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Apr 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 3 10:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 02 April. The 
largest flare was a C1.3 X-ray flare at 02/0534. This flare was 
associated with a CME and occurred around the northeast limb. 
Solar wind speed was moderate ranging from 390km to 490km over 
the last 24 hours with the IMF Bz component dipping southward 
for a couple hours reaching -10nT at 02/2023UT. Solar flare activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low to Low levels for the next 
three days. The coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected 
to reach approximately 550 km/s and remain elevated today and 
tomorrow. Region 2302 (N12) which previously produced an M-flare 
is due to return around limb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12223223
      Cocos Island         8   12222233
      Darwin               8   22222223
      Townsville           9   22223223
      Learmonth           10   22223233
      Alice Springs        8   22222223
      Norfolk Island       8   12223223
      Culgoora             8   12223223
      Gingin              10   12323233
      Camden               8   12223223
      Canberra             8   12223223
      Melbourne            9   3222322-
      Launceston          14   13333234
      Hobart               9   12223233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    11   01234233
      Casey               18   35432233
      Mawson              33   33332357
      Davis               36   23443357

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              18   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           19   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1112 2432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active
04 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 31 March and 
is current for 2-3 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled 
with an isolated period of Active conditions observed at Launceston 
for the UT Day 02 April. Isolated cases of Storm levels noted 
in the Antarctic region at the end of the UT day, 02 April. Magnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly Unsettled to Active today, 
03 April due to the high speed wind stream. Expect mostly Unsettled 
conditions on 04 April and a return to mostly Quiet conditions 
on 05 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Apr   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 9 was issued 
on 1 April and is current for 2-3 Apr. Maximum useable frequencies 
for HF communications are expected to be around predicted monthly 
values to slightly depressed today. The ionosphere may be slightly 
to moderately disturbed today and tomorrow due to weak geomagnetic 
storm possibly causing minor disruption in HF communication particularly 
at higher latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:    51900 K  Bz:   7 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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