[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 2 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 140/94 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 01 April.
Solar wind speed was light to moderate ranging from 380km to
450km with the IMF Bz component mainly northward over the last
24 hours, however it did dip to -08nT at 01/1516UT. Solar flare
activity is expected to remain at Very Low to Low levels for
the next three days. A coronal hole high speed wind stream is
expected to arrive at Earth later today, 02 April. Region 2297
(S17) which previously produced X-flare(s) is due to return around
02 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Cocos Island 6 12211322
Darwin - --------
Townsville 8 22221323
Learmonth 8 -3221322
Alice Springs 6 22221222
Norfolk Island 5 21121212
Culgoora 6 22221222
Gingin 6 22221222
Camden 6 22221212
Canberra 5 11221212
Launceston 7 12221313
Hobart 5 12220212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 01111112
Casey 10 23431212
Mawson 8 12221323
Davis 6 12322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 1022 3442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 16 Active
03 Apr 12 Unsettled
04 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 31 March and
is current for 2-3 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet for the
UT Day 01 April. Magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet today, 02 April, until the high speed solar wind stream
rotates into its geoeffective location. Once this occurs expect
conditions to increase to Active levels with isolated periods
of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes. Activity is expected
to slowly return to nominal levels over the UT day, 03 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced
today. The ionosphere may be slightly disturbed on 02-03 April due
to an anticipated magnetic storm possibly causing minor disruption in
HF communication particularly at higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 46200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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