[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 14 issued 2331 UT on 25 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 26 09:31:44 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Minor C-class flare events observed over the previous
24 hours with some activity on the E limb. Active regions 2171
(S11W12) and 2173 (S16E03) showed some renewed growth. Region
2175 (N16W10) showed rapid growth over the last 12 hours. Expect
low solar activity with the chance of isolated C- to M-class
events. Solar wind parameters remain mildly enhanced with wind
speeds around 450 km/s and IMF Bz component fluctuating +/-6nT
about neutral with no significant sustained Bz-negative periods.
The present solar wind stream is expected to persist for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Cocos Island 6 2222221-
Darwin 9 22232223
Townsville 8 2223222-
Learmonth 8 31232222
Alice Springs 8 2223222-
Norfolk Island 7 22231122
Culgoora 8 22232222
Gingin 10 3223322-
Camden 7 22232122
Canberra 7 22232112
Launceston 12 23343122
Hobart 7 22232112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 2235411-
Casey 19 4453222-
Mawson 30 5433336-
Davis 23 443-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25 4434 4334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 12 Unsettled
27 Sep 12 Unsettled
28 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active at
high latitudes and mostly Quiet at low to mid latitudes. Most
low/mid latitude stations observed Unsettled conditions 09-12UT.
Expect similar conditions next three days due to persistence
of the present slightly enhanced solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions observed
and expected next three days at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mildly depressed around local dawn,
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with variable periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Rising solar EUV radiation should result in reasonable
ionospheric propagation conditions next three days. Minor to
moderate variability possible Equatorial/N Aus regions especially
around local dawn. Increased geomagnetic activity may produce
periods of disturbance Antarctic region, possibly extending to
S Aus /NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 84200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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