[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 14 issued 2337 UT on 23 Sep 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 24 09:37:47 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3    2317UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             150/105

COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed over the past 
23 hours. A partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery 
after 0736UT. STEREO imagery indicates a far-sided event. Solar 
wind speed was steady at around 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
sustained mild negative bias 08-13 and 15-19UT. An M2 level event 
is in progress at the time of report issue, with associated Type 
II radio sweep observed on the Culgoora radiospectrograph. Expect 
low solar activity next three days with the chance of isolated 
C- to M-class events.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21122322
      Cocos Island         5   11122320
      Darwin               8   22122323
      Townsville           7   21122322
      Learmonth            8   22222322
      Alice Springs        7   21122322
      Norfolk Island       6   21122222
      Culgoora             5   11122222
      Gingin               8   21122332
      Camden               6   11122322
      Canberra             3   10021221
      Launceston           8   11232322
      Hobart               7   21122322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     9   11134321
      Casey               12   34322322
      Mawson              24   53222553
      Davis               21   33333631

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   1322 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active at high 
latitudes. Conditions at low to mid latitudes were generally 
Quiet becoming briefly Unsettled 15-18UT at some stations. Expect 
mostly Quiet conditions next three days with the chance of isolated 
Unsettled intervals.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Sep    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed to 15% 02-07UT, enhanced to 15% 11-14UT,
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Minor to moderate depressions around local dawn,
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      72
Sep      88
Oct      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Rising solar EUV radiation should result in reasonable 
ionospheric propagation conditions next three days. Minor to 
moderate variability possible Equatorial/N Aus regions especially 
around local dawn. Periods of disturbance possible Antarctic 
region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    90900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list