[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 26 10:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/3B 1708UT probable all South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 219/169
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 220/170
COMMENT: Region 12192 (S13W30) produced a number of C flares
as well as the listed X1.0 flare. This region has decreased in
size but has shown some growth in spot number and remains magnetically
complex (beta-gamma-delta). AR 12195 (N09E35) has decayed while
the other four spot groups are stable. SOHO and SDO images show
no CME associated with either the 24 Oct X3.1 flare or the 25
Oct X1.0 flare. No Earth directed CMEs. ACE data show the solar
wind speed declined from 460 to 380 km/s over the reporting period.
The total field peaked at 6 nT while the north-south IMF range
was +/-5 nT. Region 2182 (S15) which previously produced M-flare(s)
is due to return around 26 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21212221
Cocos Island 4 21211210
Darwin 6 22212222
Townsville 7 22212232
Learmonth 5 31211211
Alice Springs 5 21212221
Norfolk Island 6 21112132
Culgoora 6 21212222
Gingin 6 31212212
Camden 5 21212221
Canberra - --------
Launceston 7 21223222
Hobart 7 21223221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 22235221
Casey 18 45431232
Mawson 18 44323433
Davis 17 34433332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3012 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-60%
09-17, 21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35%
00-02, 11-12, 21-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-35%
10-13, 17 UT at Darwin and 20-30% 11-13, 16-18
UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Some enhancements
to 25% 11-19 UT. Night spread F at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
No Scott Base data 12-23 UT.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 25
October and is current for 25-27 Oct. Possible sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 86000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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