[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 25 10:30:36 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.0 0748UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X3.2 2141UT probable all East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 218/168
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 220/170
COMMENT: Region 12192 (S14W22) produced the listed flares. This
region maintains its size and magnetic complexity, although becoming
less compact. AR 12195 (N09E48) has grown while the other three
regions are stable. LASCO images show a CME directed to the south
west that was associated with the M4 event. This CME is directed
away from the ecliptic and not expected to be geo-effective.
No images are available at this time for the X flare; no type
II was associated with this event. ACE data show the solar wind
speed mostly 400-480 km/s. The total field peaked at 7 nT with
the north-south IMF +/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 21122323
Cocos Island 4 2112121-
Darwin 8 21122323
Townsville 9 21223323
Learmonth 6 21112322
Alice Springs 8 21122323
Norfolk Island 7 21112323
Culgoora 8 21122323
Gingin 9 31122332
Camden 10 22222333
Canberra 3 21110---
Launceston 10 21223333
Hobart 10 21223333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 14 11234522
Casey 16 44422323
Mawson 35 53333663
Davis 20 43443432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 59 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1222 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expected isolated active conditions did not eventuate
on 24 Oct. The recurrent coronal hole has rotated well past a
geo-effective position and is not expected to influence the geomagnetic
field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 20-40%
enhancements 12-17, 20-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 35-50% 00-05 UT then near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-35%
12-14 UT at Townsville and 20-35% 10-13, 20-22 UT
at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Some enhancements to
25% around 09-15 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: A sudden ionospheric disturbance occurred from ~2110
to ~2320 UT affecting eastern Australia to a greater extent.
Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over the forecast
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 67900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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