[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 14 issued 2333 UT on 15 Oct 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 16 10:33:52 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 140/94 150/105
COMMENT: A long duration M flare from a region around the East
limb, started yesterday Oct 14 at 1900UT, reached its peak M2.2
at 2121UT and lasted until late today,Oct 15. The X ray flux
has still not decreased to background levels at the time of report
issue. The two largest regions currently on disc, regions 2186(S21W19)
and 2187(S09E44) remained stable and quiet over the last 24 hours.
East limb activity indicates possible emergence of new active
regions in the next few days. Isolated M-class events are probable
over the forecast period, mainly from the region near the east
limb that produced 2 M flares yesterday. ACE data show the wind
speed declined slowly over the UT day but remains at around 400
km/s at the time of report issue. The IMF Bz component sustained
mild southward bias until 0300 UT, since then, it has been mostly
neutral. The present solar wind stream is expected to persist
for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 32312112
Cocos Island 3 22211100
Darwin 7 32312112
Townsville 7 32312112
Learmonth 4 32-00002
Alice Springs 7 32312102
Norfolk Island 6 32212112
Culgoora 7 32312111
Gingin 7 32312202
Camden 7 32312201
Canberra 4 22202101
Launceston 10 33313212
Hobart 8 32313211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 33223310
Casey 18 54522112
Mawson 18 64322112
Davis 12 44333100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 1001 4554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 7 Quiet
18 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Most regional low to mid latitude stations observed
Unsettled conditions early UT day, becoming mostly Quiet later.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions next 24 hours due to slightly
elevated solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions for the next 3
days. There is the slight chance for short-wave fadeouts over
the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly normal all
regions. Solar EUV radiation is continuing to rise with developing
active sunspot regions, which should support normal to enhanced
ionospheric propagation conditions next three days. There is
the slight chance for short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 66300 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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