[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 14 issued 2333 UT on 13 Oct 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 14 10:33:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: No significant flares observed 13 Oct . The background
X ray flux has declined to low B levels. SOHO LASCO imagery recorded
a strong CME around 00UT associated with an eruption from the
SW limb. This CME is not Earthward directed. Solar activity is
expected to be Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
reached about 430 km/s ~ 16 UT and it is presently fluctuating
near 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component range was +/-5nT with weak
sustained southward periods since 14UT. Mildly disturbed solar
wind conditions are likely to persist next three days. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 13/0430UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11202222
Cocos Island 4 11201221
Darwin 7 22312212
Townsville 6 21302222
Learmonth 5 21202222
Alice Springs 5 21202212
Norfolk Island 4 11202122
Culgoora 5 11202222
Gingin 5 11202222
Camden 5 11212221
Canberra 3 11201111
Launceston 5 11202222
Hobart 3 11202111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 00100211
Casey 9 23411222
Mawson 21 22211365
Davis 12 12311235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1002 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet. Unsettled
intervals are possible for the next 3 days due to slightly enhanced
solar wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% 20-21UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good ionospheric support across the AUS/NZ regions over
the last 24 hours with Niue depressed 20% 20-21UT. Expect conditions
mostly near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 20000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list