[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 6 10:30:20 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low on Oct 5 and it is expected 
to be low during Oct 6-7. AR 2177 produced the largest flare 
of the day, a C1.5 event peaking at 16:56 UT. The background 
X ray flux is at the B6 level. The 10.7 cm solar radio flux has 
declined to about 125. There are no Earthward directed CMEs. 
The Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) which has been impacting 
Earth since late Oct 3 has almost passed. The solar wind speed 
reached about 480 km/s during early Oct 5 and it is presently 
fluctuating near 420 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has declined 
back to about 5-6 nT. The Bz component was mostly positive during 
Oct 4-5.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Cocos Island         4   22211110
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            5   32211110
      Alice Springs        6   2221----
      Norfolk Island       4   22211110
      Culgoora             4   22211111
      Gingin               6   2221----
      Camden               4   22211111
      Canberra             2   12100010
      Launceston           6   23211121
      Hobart               4   22211011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   1110----
      Casey               42   4653----
      Mawson              13   3332----
      Davis               10   34321122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              18   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1221 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     6    Quiet
07 Oct     6    Quiet
08 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Oct 5 and they 
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced in the 
Southern Hemisphere on Oct 5, and it is expected to remain enhanced 
today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Oct   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct   130    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Oct   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up 
to 20-40% for extended intervals during Oct 5 at most Australia 
region stations. Conditions are expected to remain enhanced throughout 
the region today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:    98300 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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