[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 5 10:30:23 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: AR 2172 and AR 2173 have rotated off the visible disk
and the background X ray flux declined to the B4 level. Solar
flare activity was low on Oct 4 and it is expected to be low
on Oct 5. AR 2178 produced the largest C class flare of Oct 4,
a C1.7 event peaking at 01:02 UT. Learmonth GONG H alpha images
suggest the ejection of material associated with this event.
However, SOHO LASCO images did not record a CME. Because AR 2178
was located at (S03W04) at the time of the eruption, there is
the possibility of a very minor impact on Earth in 3-4 days.
A Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) began to arrive late on
Oct 3. The solar wind speed increased from about 320 km/s to
420 km/s during Oct 4. The magnitude of the IMF increased to
about 15 nT at 18 UT. The Bz component increased to about 12
nT at 17 UT, and then briefly swung southward. The Bz component
is mostly northward at the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12221012
Cocos Island 4 12211012
Darwin 5 22221022
Townsville 5 22221022
Learmonth 5 12221022
Alice Springs 4 12221021
Norfolk Island 3 01211012
Culgoora 4 12-21012
Gingin 3 11211012
Camden 4 12221012
Canberra 2 01210001
Launceston 5 12321012
Hobart 4 12211012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01110001
Casey 8 23321122
Mawson 9 33321113
Davis 10 23431013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2010 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 6 Quiet
07 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Oct 4. Conditions
may become unsettled during Oct 5 due to the stronger magnetic
fields associated with a CIR. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced in the
Southern Hemisphere on Oct 4, and it is expected to remain enhanced
today. The propagation support is expected to trend back toward
predicted monthly values in coming days due to the gradual decline
of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 125 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
06 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up
to 30-50% for extended intervals during Oct 4 at most Australia
region stations. Conditions are expected to be enhanced to
strongly enhanced throughout the Australian region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 24900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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