[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 May 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 18 09:30:16 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 17 May and is expected 
to remain low today. The largest flare of the day was a C3.3 
event from AR 2066 peaking at 02:39 UT. AR 2066 is located near 
the central meridian. AR 2065 has rotated into the SE quadrant 
but is presently stable. AR 2063 may produce more C class flares. 
There is a slight chance of a moderate M class flare during the 
next 48 hours. The two major CMEs during the previous 24 hours 
were far side events. The solar wind speed remains light and 
steady near 350 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF was mostly less 
than 6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated mostly between -2 and 
+2 nT during 17 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000000
      Cocos Island         0   00000---
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   12110011
      Learmonth            0   10010000
      Alice Springs        0   00100000
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             0   01000000
      Gingin               0   00100000
      Camden               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   11000000
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                3   22210000
      Mawson               4   31110111
      Davis                5   32210121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1110 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May     4    Quiet
19 May     5    Quiet
20 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet during 17 May 
and are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 May    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
19 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
20 May    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were near predicted monthly values at 
most Australian region stations during 17 May. They are expected 
to remain near or slightly above predicted monthly values during 
the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    46700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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