[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 24 10:30:28 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity were observed during the
last 24 hours. A few C-class flares were observed, the largest
being a long duration C5 event from region 2014(S14E20). This
event peaked at 0348UT and was associated to a CME that may have
a weak earthward component. Minor shock or strengthening of solar
wind stream may be possible on 26 March. Solar wind speed mostly
stayed around 500km/s and the Bz component varied between -4/+5
nT staying positive for longer periods of time. Light to Moderate
solar wind speeds are expected for the next three days. Solar
activity may be expected to stay at low levels with some possibility
of M-class activity during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22201112
Cocos Island 3 21111011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 22201122
Learmonth 4 32101111
Alice Springs 4 22101112
Norfolk Island 1 -1100011
Culgoora 4 2220111-
Gingin 5 31201112
Camden 5 22211112
Canberra 4 22101112
Launceston 5 22211112
Hobart 5 22211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 11100011
Casey 17 45432112
Mawson 16 23322254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 2001 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 6 Quiet
26 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels during
the UT day,23 March. Nearly similar levels of activity may be
expected on 25 March. Activity may rise to Quiet to unsettled
levels on 24 and 26 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some MUF
enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Mar 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
26 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Aus/NZ region
today with some MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for the next three days in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 188000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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