[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 14 issued 2349 UT on 28 Jul 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 29 09:49:32 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
region 2125 (S12E47) being the source of the largest two flares 
with a C1.2 at 1145UT and a C2.4 at 1410UT. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed climbed from 310km/s 
at 03UT to be ~420km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bz 
component ranged between +/-5 for most of the UT day with notable 
sustained southward periods of approx -8nT between 03-07UT. Solar 
activity for the next 3 days is expected to be Low, with a chance 
of M-class events.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212311
      Cocos Island         5   22311210
      Darwin               6   22211312
      Townsville           9   23322311
      Learmonth            9   23322311
      Alice Springs        7   22212312
      Norfolk Island       5   22211211
      Culgoora             6   22212311
      Gingin               7   12222321
      Camden               6   22212311
      Canberra             5   12211311
      Launceston           8   23222311
      Hobart               6   12222311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     7   01232410
      Casey                9   23322222
      Mawson              19   343-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Darwin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2111 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul     4    Quiet
30 Jul     4    Quiet
31 Jul     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jul    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Jul    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
31 Jul    65    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 26 July 
and is current for 27-29 Jul. Variable HF conditions observed 
for Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs were depressed 
over Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and normal to disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    57400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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