[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 28 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C2 and C1 flares from, respectively, regions 2125 (S12E71) and 
2127 (S07E79). Region 2126 (S09E03) increased in area. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. Activity for the next 3 days is expected 
to be low, with a chance of M-class events. The solar wind varied 
between around 320-390 km/s and the IMF Bz component between 
-5 to +6 nT, mostly negative for the 5 hours from 01 UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11210002
      Townsville           2   11200012
      Learmonth            1   11200000
      Alice Springs        2   11200001
      Norfolk Island       2   21100001
      Culgoora             2   21100001
      Gingin               1   11110000
      Camden               2   21100001
      Canberra             2   21100001
      Launceston           2   21210001
      Hobart               1   11100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                5   32311010
      Mawson               7   33311110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   2222 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul     5    Quiet
29 Jul     5    Quiet
30 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, unsettled conditions were observed 
in Antarctica until around 09 UT. Conditions are expected to 
be mostly quiet for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 26 July 
and is current for 27-29 Jul. MUFs were depressed over much of 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions 
are likely for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    77600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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