[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 14 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 13 July. AR 2109
produced the largest event of the day, a C6.4 event peaking at
09:03 UT. AR 2109 produced another C1.3 event peaking at 20:52
UT. AR 2108 also produced several low level C class flares. AR
2108 is on the western limb and AR 2109 is also approaching the
western limb. The background X-ray flux is trending downward
through the B class range. There is a chance of an isolated M
class flare today. There are no Earthward directed CMEs. The
solar wind speed was mostly about 340 km/s to 350 km/s during
13 July. The magnitude of the IMF increased from about 5 nT to
11 nT, and the Bz component has been weak and fluctuating in
the range -5 nT to +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12120001
Cocos Island 2 11010002
Darwin 2 02120011
Townsville 4 12120112
Learmonth 3 12120102
Alice Springs 2 12020001
Norfolk Island 2 11120001
Culgoora 3 12120011
Gingin 1 11110001
Camden 3 12120101
Canberra 2 12020000
Launceston 3 12121001
Hobart 2 02120000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00121000
Casey 6 13221121
Mawson 9 32221133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2222 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jul 6 Quiet
16 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 13 July. The
magnitude of the IMF increased from about 5 nT to 11 nT. Unsettled
conditions are possible during 14 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were slightly depressed
throughout the Australian region during 13 July. Cocos Island
was an exception, with foF2 values enhanced by up to 40% during
07-11 UT. The declining 10.7 cm solar flux suggests a softening
of propagation support in coming days, but regional enhancements
may occur due to day-to-day variability.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 25400 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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