[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 13 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar flux declined from 201 on 6 July to
145 on 12 July and is expected to decline further during the
next 3 days. The background X ray flux has declined to the B class
level. Solar flare activity was low during 12 July. AR 2108 released
the largest event of the day, a C4.6 event peaking at 14:08 UT.
Although the chance of an M class event remains, the 3-day outlook
is presently for C class flares. The solar wind speed has been
varying in the range 350-400 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF was
in the range 4-7 nT during the previous 24 hours. Bz was weakly
southward at about -5 nT for extended intervals during 12 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11222100
Cocos Island 2 10112000
Darwin 3 11212001
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 3 11222100
Alice Springs 2 11212000
Norfolk Island 3 11222000
Culgoora 5 12222111
Gingin 3 11222100
Camden 4 12222110
Canberra 4 12222100
Launceston 5 11323100
Hobart 4 11322100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 9 01334300
Casey 5 32212110
Mawson 16 25333322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1121 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul 6 Quiet
15 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled last night due
to an extended interval of weak Bz southward conditions. The
Australian region Dst index decreased to -40 nT at 13 UT. A glancing
blow from a CME may drive further intervals of unsettled geomagnetic
conditions today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly near
predicted monthly values throughout the Australian region. Conditions
were depressed by up to 35% during the night at Cocos Island.
The 10.7 cm solar flux is declining and the multiday outlook
is for a softening of propagation support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 28400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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