[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 27 10:30:22 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Low
Flares: C class flares.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 26 Jan UT. The largest
X ray flare was a C6.1 event peaking at 10:13 UT from AR1960.
More C class solar flares are likely today, and there is a small
but increasing chance of an M class flare. AR 1944 and 1946 are
located just beyond the east limb and may produce M class flares
during the next week. Two bright CMEs were observed leaving the
SE limb during the previous 24 hours, one commencing during 21
UT on 25 Jan and the other at 08 UT on 26 Jan. These events were
not Earthward directed but are indicative of activity which
may soon rotate into view. The magnitude of the IMF was about
4 nT during 26 Jan. The Bz component has been fluctuating in
the range -4 to +4 nT. The solar wind speed has been in the range
350-390 km/s and is expected to remain light during the next
48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22210211
Cocos Island 3 21200210
Darwin 4 21110212
Townsville 4 22110221
Learmonth 3 21110211
Alice Springs 4 12210212
Norfolk Island 4 22110112
Culgoora 3 12210111
Gingin 4 22210211
Camden 4 22210111
Canberra 3 12210111
Launceston 6 23220212
Hobart 4 22210211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11220110
Casey 14 44421222
Mawson 22 65421221
Davis 10 33421221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 4 Quiet
28 Jan 5 Quiet
29 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 26 Jan UT.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was near normal
to enhanced at the low latitude stations, Darwin, Niue, Townsville
and Learmonth. Conditions were near normal to slightly enhanced
at Norfolk Island, Perth and Brisbane. Conditions were near normal
at stations located further south, including the Antarctic stations.
Conditions are expected to remain near normal to enhanced
today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background:
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 55600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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