[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 26 10:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Very low to low

Flares: Low level C class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 130/085


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/085            130/085            130/085

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low to low during 25 Jan UT. 
A C1.5 solar X ray flare peaked at 23:44 UT on 24 Jan and a C1.0 
flare peaked at 02:32 UT on 25 Jan. More low level C-class flares 
are possible today. None of the complex sequence of bright CMEs 
which left the solar limb during the previous 24 hours are 
Earthward directed. The prominent H alpha solar filament now 
rotating toward the western limb has been active, but remains 
attached to the Sun. The magnitude of the IMF was about 5 nT 
during 25 Jan. The Bz component has been fluctuating in the 
range -5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed has been in the 
range 350-400 km/s and was about 350 km/s at 13 UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12211112
      Cocos Island         3   21110201
      Darwin               2   11100112
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            4   11211211
      Alice Springs        2   12100111
      Norfolk Island       -   --------
      Culgoora             4   12201122
      Gingin               4   21201202
      Camden               4   12210121
      Canberra             4   12210121
      Launceston           5   12211222
      Hobart               4   12211112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   12101200
      Casey               14   34422223
      Mawson              19   43222345
      Davis               11   33322232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg       N/A
           Planetary            N/A                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       N/A
           Planetary            N/A   1100 1001


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan     4    Quiet
27 Jan     4    Quiet
28 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 25 Jan UT. 
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet during the 
next 48 hours.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jan   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      130
Jan      73
Feb      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Jan   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was mostly enhanced 
throughout the Australian region during 25 Jan. The ionospheric 
propagation support was strongly enhanced at Darwin and Townsville 
for most of the UT day. Propagation conditions are expected to 
remain enhanced to strongly enhanced today.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    71800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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