[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 13 issued 2329 UT on 31 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 1 10:29:39 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.4 2159UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity were observed on 31
December. Several C-class and one M-class flares were observed.
A C8 long duration event peaked at 1150 UT and an M-class activity
peaked around 2212UT. At this stage no earthward directed CME
could be seen in the available imagery. Solar wind speed varied
between 340 and 420 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied mostly
between +/-5 nT during this period. Solar wind stream may get
stronger from 01 January due to the effects of a coronal hole
and previously observed CME activity. Low levels of solar activity
may be expected on 01 January with the possibility of some M-class
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22322122
Darwin 8 22322123
Townsville 7 22322122
Learmonth 7 32222122
Alice Springs 6 22222122
Culgoora 7 22312122
Gingin 6 31211122
Camden 7 22322122
Canberra 4 11211022
Launceston 7 22322122
Hobart 7 22322122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 11210011
Casey 18 44532222
Mawson 12 43323222
Davis 14 43333223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jan 15 Unsettled to Minor Storm
03 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet to unsettled levels
today. Nearly similar activity levels may be expected on 01 and
03 January. Activity may vary from unsettled to minor storm levels
on 02 January due to expected effects from high speed solar wind
streams from and coronal hole and recently observed CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2013 1905UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal - fair
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
MUF depressions may be expected on 02 January, especially at
high and some mid latitude locations due to an expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
03 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
MUF depressions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions on 02 January
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this
day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 44700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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