[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 14 issued 2348 UT on 18 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 19 10:49:00 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity for 18Feb was Low with the only notable
event being a C4.7 flare from region 1976. Solar wind speed was
~~370km/s at 00UT and began to increase from 06UT onwards to be
~~400km/s at the time of this report. A small step increase in
Bt was also seen around 06UT along with a notable increase in
density indicating this may be a late arriving CME from recent
flare activity. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) is currently -8nT, having swung southward
for the latter half of the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to be Low for the next 3 days with the slight chance of an M-class
flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 11212322
Cocos Island 4 11211221
Darwin 7 21212322
Townsville 8 21213322
Learmonth 10 21223333
Alice Springs 6 10212322
Norfolk Island 4 00112222
Culgoora 7 21212322
Gingin 9 11113333
Camden 7 21212322
Canberra 6 11212322
Launceston 8 11222332
Hobart 7 11212332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 00112321
Casey 23 34642232
Mawson 10 3231----
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 13 Unsettled to Active
20 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with an slight increase in activity seen towards
the end of the UT day from a possible late arriving CME. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be Unsettled with possible Active periods
over the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 20-21Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed for Southern AUS/NZ
and Northern AUS regions during local day and night for 18Feb.
MUF's are expected to range from near monthly predicted values
to enhanced by ~15% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions
for the next 24 hours. Possible disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions 19Feb due to the observed slight increase in geomagnetic
activity. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected for
20-21Feb for all regions. Further short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 69800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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