[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 14 issued 2338 UT on 17 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 18 10:38:10 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity for 17Feb was Low with the only significant
flare being a C6.6 event from region 1977 (S10W16) which has
declined in area over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speeds ranged
between 350-450km/s over the UT day and Bz ranged between +/-3nT
with no sustained southward periods. Light (300km/s-400km/s)
solar wind speeds are expected for the next 3 days. Solar activity
is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 24 hours with
the chance of an M-class flare. Low solar activity is expected
for 19-20Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21101112
Cocos Island 3 22101111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 4 31011112
Alice Springs 3 21001112
Norfolk Island 2 1-001012
Culgoora 2 11101111
Gingin 2 21001111
Camden 4 22111112
Canberra 2 21001011
Launceston 3 21101112
Hobart 2 11101012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 14 35331122
Mawson 22 44122164
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 5322 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 6 Quiet
19 Feb 6 Quiet
20 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 17
February and is current for 17-18 Feb. Depressed HF conditions
observed for Antarctic, Southern and some Northern AUS regions
during local day and dusk, recovering overnight to be near monthly
values. As the effects of recent geomagnetic/CME activity decline,
MUF's are expected to range from near monthly predicted values
to enhanced by 15% for both Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions
and mostly normal ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for
the next 3 days. Further short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.3E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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