[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 9 10:30:37 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has reduced to Low levels with only C
class flares, the greatest a C8, from regions 1967 and 1968.
The solar wind remains under the influence of the CME impact
yesterday although the speed and magnetic field magnitude have
reduced over the last few hours. Further disturbance is possible
over the next 24 hours from a possible additional CME impact
and coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 25 55533232
Cocos Island 20 54433232
Darwin 21 55433222
Townsville 22 55433232
Learmonth 26 55533242
Alice Springs 25 55533232
Norfolk Island 19 55423121
Culgoora 22 45533232
Gingin 22 54433243
Camden 48 -55-----
Canberra 19 44523232
Launceston 26 55533332
Hobart 21 45523232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 22 44345331
Casey 31 56533243
Mawson 58 66632573
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 0012 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 5 Quiet
11 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The CME impact from yesterday has had a greater impact
of magnetic conditions in the Australian region than anticipated.
Conditions reached Minor storm levels for the first half of the
day, before reducing to Quiet by the end of the day. Unsettled
conditions, with possible Active periods, are expected over the
next day, before returning to mostly Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions over the last day have been good.
However, overnight geomagnetic activity has caused a much reduced
MUF as measured in the east coast ionosondes. MUFs are expected
to reduce to around the predicted monthly values, with some mild
depressions possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 33600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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