[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 14 issued 2337 UT on 07 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 8 10:37:38 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 06/2305UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.0 0457UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.9 1029UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 165/119 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at Moderate levels with both
region 1967(S13W64) and 1968(N13W59) producing low level M class
flares (an M1 and M2 respectively). No new CMEs of significance
were observed. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at
1615UT on 07 Feb, most likely corresponding the CME observed
around 012UT on the 4th. The wind speed has increased to 450
km/s and the IMF Bt to up to 15nT, however it went mostly northward
post shock, with several brief southward excursions. Activity
is expected to remain Moderate for the next few days. Further
disturbance in the solar wind is expected over the next 24 due
to a second small CME impact and a coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 11111333
Cocos Island 7 11110333
Darwin 7 11111333
Townsville 9 10211334
Learmonth 8 22111333
Alice Springs 7 11111333
Norfolk Island 6 01-11233
Culgoora 6 11111323
Gingin 7 11111333
Camden - --------
Canberra 5 01111223
Launceston 10 11222334
Hobart 5 01211223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 00011123
Casey 14 33321334
Mawson 13 33212433
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1312 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: In the IPS magnetometer data for 07 Feb, a weak (11nT)
impulse was observed at 1707UT. This was due to the expected
arrival of a weak CME. Conditions have reached only Unsettled
levels and are expected to remain mostly Unsettled for the next
48 hours, with possibly Active periods. Brief Minor Storm periods
are possibly although unlikely.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions remain good with enhanced MUFs
observed across the Australian region. These conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. Some disturbance and reduce MUFs may be
experience in southern regions on the 8th and 9th of Feb however
this disturbance, if it occurs, is expected to be minor.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 69400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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