[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Dec 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 15 10:30:38 EST 2014 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1933UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 166/120


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours. 
There were thirteen C-class flares from four different regions, 
but the largest event was an M1 from region 2242 (S20E42), peaking 
at 14/2015 UT. An associated CME appears to be directed too far 
east to be geoeffective, as does a larger subsequent CME from 
the east limb. Region 2237 (S16E34) grew overnight. Low to moderate 
activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
decreased further and is now around 400-450 km/s. The IMF total 
field rose from around 6 to 8 nT, while the Bz component was 
southward to around -6 nT for much of the UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22122232
      Cocos Island         6   22112231
      Darwin              10   22122243
      Townsville           9   22112243
      Learmonth           10   22122342
      Alice Springs        7   22122232
      Norfolk Island       7   22112232
      Culgoora             7   22112232
      Gingin               7   22122232
      Camden               8   22222232
      Canberra             6   12112232
      Hobart               9   23222232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    14   23334332
      Casey               24   55433242
      Mawson              29   25344363
      Davis               27   35453352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   1211 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled 
across the Australian region on 14-Dec, with an active period 
in the north 18-21 UT. Active and storm level periods observed 
in the Antarctic. Conditions are likely remain similar for the 
next few days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high 
latitudes, with a chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Dec   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      113
Dec      87
Jan      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 14 
December and is current for 15-17 Dec. MUFs were near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced across the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours. Sporadic E is currently being observed 
in NSW. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the next 
3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.1E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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